What's Wrong with Expert Predictions? (Cato Unbound Book 72011) by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Jason Kuznicki, Philip E. Tetlock, Robin Hanson, Dan Gardner, John Cochrane

What's Wrong with Expert Predictions? (Cato Unbound Book 72011)

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Jason Kuznicki, Philip E. Tetlock, Robin Hanson, Dan Gardner, John Cochrane

47 pages first pub 2011 (editions)

challenging informative reflective medium-paced
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Experts must love making predictions. They keep right on predicting, even though by any reasonable standard, they're terrible at it. Many of them, though intelligent and well-informed, nonetheless have difficulty even beating a random guess about ...

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