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A review by jasonfurman
Streets of Gold: America's Untold Story of Immigrant Success by Ran Abramitzky
5.0
A superb example of original social science and its translation for a broader audience. In recent years Ran Abramitzky and Leah Boustan have produced path-breaking research on immigration by linking large datasets including Ancestry.com, the Census, tax records and more to understand the ways in which immigration patterns have changed--and more often stayed the same--over the last century and a half. In this book they put that research in a broader context in several respects: a history of immigration, how they came to do their research, how it fits in with other research, and most importantly lots and lots of stories (including bits of their own) that make the patterns in their data more vivid and resonant.
The three most important set of findings they convey are: (1) the myth of rags-to-riches and how both in earlier generations and today immigrants themselves generally did not climb the ladder particularly quickly; (2) the mobility of immigrant children which is also similar across generations and remarkable--if your parents are at the 25th percentile you tend to rise to the 40th to 65th percentile depending on where you come from; and (3) how the pattern of assimilation today and in the past is relatively similar, as measures by adopting American names, moving out of ethnic enclaves, and marrying out of one's ethnic group.
There is a lot more nuance in all of those accounts, including some differences over time, in terms of where you came from and the like. Also some interesting findings like a big part of why immigrant children are upwardly mobile is not education but instead that they tend to move to areas with high mobility as opposed to Americans who tend to stay in the same place. Also, of course, immigrant parents "underperform" economically, like the doctors who can't practice in the United States, something that goes away with their children.
Abramitzky and Boustan also review the evidence on the effect of immigrants on native born Americans, arguing that a range of evidence from historical (looking what happened when immigration was dramatically restricted starting in the 1920s) to a variety of other episodes (Bracero ending in 1964, the border wall, the Mariel Boatlift, etc.) to argue that there is little effect on wages of Americans. I've generally found this evidence reasonably compelling but I am still not 100% convinced by it. I wish the authors had discussed a little bit more of macroeconomic research and theory on how immigration can increase productivity growth, the labor force, help reduce fiscal strains, and more--much of which might actually matter more for wages in the long-run than any of the shorter-run effects the studies they cite are covering.
The authors enthusiasm for immigration--which I share--leads them to a blind spot about how to advance it politically. Their last chapter proposes "A Second Grand Bargain" which argues that Americans generally support immigration and that to get more of it politicians just need to do a better job describing its benefits, particularly its benefits over the longer term. Having worked on these issues (and put out reports from the Obama White House making many of the points this book makes about how great immigration is for the economy) I'm skeptical that this is remotely close to sufficient.
The authors also overstate public support for *expanding* immigration. They cite a Gallup poll that 75 percent of Americans agree that "on the whole" immigration is "a good thing." This, however, is probably not the relevant question--Gallup also asks "should immigration be kept at its present level, increased, or decreased" and a plurality of Americans have answered decreased in every survey from 1965 to the present. The fact that Democratic politicians nationally and regionally often take steps to limit immigration and get politically skittish around the issue should also tell you something, either about the views of the public as a whole or the intensity by some parts of the public.
Ultimately to politically advance immigration we will need more books and arguments like this--to win over minds--but also a better understanding of what people don't like about immigration, some of which is probably not merely confusion but different values, a higher discount rate, etc.--and figure out a grand bargain that addresses or assuages those concerns.
The three most important set of findings they convey are: (1) the myth of rags-to-riches and how both in earlier generations and today immigrants themselves generally did not climb the ladder particularly quickly; (2) the mobility of immigrant children which is also similar across generations and remarkable--if your parents are at the 25th percentile you tend to rise to the 40th to 65th percentile depending on where you come from; and (3) how the pattern of assimilation today and in the past is relatively similar, as measures by adopting American names, moving out of ethnic enclaves, and marrying out of one's ethnic group.
There is a lot more nuance in all of those accounts, including some differences over time, in terms of where you came from and the like. Also some interesting findings like a big part of why immigrant children are upwardly mobile is not education but instead that they tend to move to areas with high mobility as opposed to Americans who tend to stay in the same place. Also, of course, immigrant parents "underperform" economically, like the doctors who can't practice in the United States, something that goes away with their children.
Abramitzky and Boustan also review the evidence on the effect of immigrants on native born Americans, arguing that a range of evidence from historical (looking what happened when immigration was dramatically restricted starting in the 1920s) to a variety of other episodes (Bracero ending in 1964, the border wall, the Mariel Boatlift, etc.) to argue that there is little effect on wages of Americans. I've generally found this evidence reasonably compelling but I am still not 100% convinced by it. I wish the authors had discussed a little bit more of macroeconomic research and theory on how immigration can increase productivity growth, the labor force, help reduce fiscal strains, and more--much of which might actually matter more for wages in the long-run than any of the shorter-run effects the studies they cite are covering.
The authors enthusiasm for immigration--which I share--leads them to a blind spot about how to advance it politically. Their last chapter proposes "A Second Grand Bargain" which argues that Americans generally support immigration and that to get more of it politicians just need to do a better job describing its benefits, particularly its benefits over the longer term. Having worked on these issues (and put out reports from the Obama White House making many of the points this book makes about how great immigration is for the economy) I'm skeptical that this is remotely close to sufficient.
The authors also overstate public support for *expanding* immigration. They cite a Gallup poll that 75 percent of Americans agree that "on the whole" immigration is "a good thing." This, however, is probably not the relevant question--Gallup also asks "should immigration be kept at its present level, increased, or decreased" and a plurality of Americans have answered decreased in every survey from 1965 to the present. The fact that Democratic politicians nationally and regionally often take steps to limit immigration and get politically skittish around the issue should also tell you something, either about the views of the public as a whole or the intensity by some parts of the public.
Ultimately to politically advance immigration we will need more books and arguments like this--to win over minds--but also a better understanding of what people don't like about immigration, some of which is probably not merely confusion but different values, a higher discount rate, etc.--and figure out a grand bargain that addresses or assuages those concerns.